A horribly written essay on Polls...and some other stuff
Polls.....
So apparently polls arent really that simple.. There are all these different things that can effect the outcome of an election that isn't clearly shown by the polls.
For one, if you'll look closely and add up all the percentages, they usually come out to about 94 or 95%. That leaves out the 4 or 5% of the American public that makes up the undecided vote.
I read about the Incumbent rule which tells us that at any given moment, the "president"'s percentage of the vote relative to 50% is a better indicator of where the race stands than the margin separating Bush and Kerry.
In one of the articles I read, the writer mentioned more about the relationship of the incumbent and the undecided voters.
The article suggests that maybe undecided voters arent literally undecided, they just arent sure if they want another four years of the same president. It also says "Most or all voters having trouble with this decision appear to end up deciding againt the incumbent."
The polls I looked at online gave me an extremely close race. 46% to 46% in this state, 50% to 44% in that state... But if the article I read was right, the extra five percent not represented by any certain candidate should go to Kerry, right? So that brings the race to 54% to 46% and 50% to 50%.
This is of course, not taking into account the undecideds who don't vote, the police stopping people from voting, the messed up ballots and the media having a field day in west palm.
So really this is anybody's election. It worries me slightly that the fate of this country and possibly a few others lies in the hands of the sunfried retirement state... But maybe they'll realize that Canadian medications are actually so much CHEAPER and maybe we could use the money we save by not giving it to pharmecutical companies to maybe, I dunno.. crawl out of national debt or something..
Yknow what, Better idea.. Let's just have Halliburton pay it all off.
So apparently polls arent really that simple.. There are all these different things that can effect the outcome of an election that isn't clearly shown by the polls.
For one, if you'll look closely and add up all the percentages, they usually come out to about 94 or 95%. That leaves out the 4 or 5% of the American public that makes up the undecided vote.
I read about the Incumbent rule which tells us that at any given moment, the "president"'s percentage of the vote relative to 50% is a better indicator of where the race stands than the margin separating Bush and Kerry.
In one of the articles I read, the writer mentioned more about the relationship of the incumbent and the undecided voters.
The article suggests that maybe undecided voters arent literally undecided, they just arent sure if they want another four years of the same president. It also says "Most or all voters having trouble with this decision appear to end up deciding againt the incumbent."
The polls I looked at online gave me an extremely close race. 46% to 46% in this state, 50% to 44% in that state... But if the article I read was right, the extra five percent not represented by any certain candidate should go to Kerry, right? So that brings the race to 54% to 46% and 50% to 50%.
This is of course, not taking into account the undecideds who don't vote, the police stopping people from voting, the messed up ballots and the media having a field day in west palm.
So really this is anybody's election. It worries me slightly that the fate of this country and possibly a few others lies in the hands of the sunfried retirement state... But maybe they'll realize that Canadian medications are actually so much CHEAPER and maybe we could use the money we save by not giving it to pharmecutical companies to maybe, I dunno.. crawl out of national debt or something..
Yknow what, Better idea.. Let's just have Halliburton pay it all off.
posted by Mabreg at 1:59 PM
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